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Germany's exports drop 6.3% in January on month
Trade surplus fell to 8.7 billion euros last month from 16.6 billion euros
By Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:35 AM ET Mar 10, 2010
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- Germany's exports unexpectedly declined in January compared to the previous month, official data showed on Wednesday, highlighting risks of a bumpy recovery in Europe's largest economy.
Exports, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, dropped 6.3% last month compared to December 2009, the Federal Statistical Office, or Destatis, reported.
Most analysts expected a 0.5% increase in exports, which posted a monthly rise of 3.4% in December.
"This surprisingly poor figure probably does not mark the end of the recovery of exports," said Simon Junker, an analyst at Commerzbank AG.
The global economy is rebounding and orders in the manufacturing sector have risen sharply in past months, he wrote in a note to clients.
"Despite this setback in exports, we stick with our prediction that the German economy will continue to recover and foreign trade will play a significant part in driving this recovery," Junker said.
Imports posted a monthly rise of 6% in January after gaining 5% in the previous month, Destatis reported on Wednesday. Compared to the same month a year ago, exports edged up 0.2% and imports dropped 1.4% in January.
Germany's seasonally adjusted foreign trade surplus declined to 8.7 billion euros last month from 16.6 billion euros in December.
"The drop in January is probably a blip and the trade surplus will probably snap back higher in coming months," said Ken Wattret, analyst at BNP Paribas, in a note. Also, imports seem unsustainably strong, suggesting a correction is likely in coming months.
However, along with the hard-hit construction activity, the sharp contraction in the trade surplus in January signals downside risks for first-quarter gross domestic product, Wattret said.
Earlier this week, data showed that German industrial production rose 0.6% in January from the previous month. The figure was somewhat below market expectations, mostly as a result of a big slump in construction which was hurt by the severe winter.
Also, new industrial orders posted a monthly rise of 4.3% in January, further pointing to a continuation of the economic recovery.
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